▲ Recession Risk Monitor
May 12, 2026 · Day --
RECESSION RISK
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12-month NBER recession likelihood
Labor + macro + credit · L/C/Lag weighted
STAGFLATION PRESSURE
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Slow growth + high inflation
CPI + oil + Fed constraint + real wages
FINANCIAL FRAGILITY
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Hidden credit/shadow stress
Private credit + CRE + bank stress
MARKET STRESS
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Equity/valuation crash risk
VIX + CAPE + Buffett + spreads
BLENDED RISK INDEX
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Computing sensitivity range...
Goldman 30%*
Moody's Zandi 49%
NY Fed 19%
Polymarket 25%
*Goldman assumed 6-week Hormuz resolution. Day --.
Risk index, not statistically calibrated probability. Scores are discretionary expert judgment, not regression output against historical NBER recession dates. Not backtested against 2001/2008/2020 or false-alarm periods. Data is manually updated — see individual indicator sources for release dates. Sensitivity range = score variance, not true model uncertainty. NBER badge marks the 5 core monthly indicators NBER actually uses to date recessions. Use as a structured opinion dashboard, not a substitute for FRED-anchored trained models.
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Composite trend — session log
Recession Monitor · Updated -- · Iran war Day 221 · Strait still shut
81 indicators · L/C/Lag weighted · Monte Carlo CI